Housing market update

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fan-of-fans

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Joined
Mar 2, 2014
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Location
Florida
I think I had posted on this quite some time ago but I wanted to update.

So home prices have basically doubled or more around here since 2019. Everyone told me in 2030 that the prices were unsustainable and would need to come down. It hasn’t happened and ironically most people that told me that have either bought second homes or sold their existing home and upgraded since then.

Then two years ago, when the interest rates started going up I was told that it was going to make “sellers have to lower their prices, guaranteed.” I was told this would happen “in a year or two.”

Hasn’t happened, prices here have still gone up, and people don’t need to sell. Sure there have been some $20k price cuts on homes that were ridiculously overpriced, even for this market. But we’re not approaching even 2022 pricing, let alone 2019.

I’ve been saving up for 12 years now. I finally have enough that I could make a 50% down payment on a pretty good house, with the major stuff updated, or a new construction house. However, I can’t really get the payment, property tax and insurance below 25% of my take home pay like some suggest. It would be more like 30-32%.

I’m just very concerned we’re in a bubble like 2007, as prices have gone up so quickly, and now interest rates that were 2-3% are now above 7% and don’t appear to be coming down.

I’m afraid I’ll put all this money into a down payment on an overpriced home, and then the market crashes, I’ll lose my job in a recession, lose the house and be even worse off with very little or no savings.

Also, I fear buying and having the property tax and insurance eventually pricing me out of the house, along with inflation everywhere else.

On the other hand, supply seems tight and practically nobody wants to sell as they will end up with a higher mortgage rate and have to pay more to buy their next house. It makes it in that aspect seem different than 2007, and as if prices won’t go down much if at all.

I don’t know what to do but I think I’d be much happier in my own place, but things just seem so volatile right now. On the other hand, renting an apartment is safer as it doesn’t require much tie up of savings, however it feels like throwing away money to me as I know I’ll be stuck there a long time as it’s not like it would be a short wait for home prices to come down, if they even do.

IF the market crashes, I’d be in a good position though as I could easily buy one or two homes for cash.

It feels like I’m running out of time to buy as I’m approaching my mid 30s and if I wait I won’t have enough time to pay off a mortgage.

Buying a fixer upper isn’t really an option now as they rarely come up for sale anymore, practically none, and the labor and material costs to do repairs and remodels right now are sky high.
 
Buying your first home

Hi Cole, in general, you probably should go ahead and buy I don’t think the markets gonna change that much. Things are very stable right now however things could change if the election goes badly this fall.

You don’t give enough details to give specific advice and you may not want to give out personal information in this forum, I understand that.

There’s all sorts of factors that you leave out if you’re single, you can spend more than 25%. Of your take home on a house, is there a possibility of having either a partner or a tenant to help with the cost of the house?

What area are you considering some areas are much more risky with climate change this is definitely something to consider where you’re buying.what Will it look like in 15 or 30 years. In some areas, you can hardly afford insurance now.

You really don’t have to worry about paying off a 30 year loan. That’s not really an important consideration, I took out a 30 year loan when I was 64. I’m not worried about paying it off. I may pre-pay it. I may just want the flexibility of a very low payment.

John
 
Please don’t bring politics into this. Not everyone is going to agree with your political viewpoint or party. I get you don’t like Republicans, Conservatives, or red states. There are things I disagree with both parties on and some I agree with. I really don’t care and I’m sick of the political bickering and choosing sides.

I like living in Florida. I agree insurance is expensive here (not as much as some make it out to be in the media, etc.) it’s going up in other states too.

I think a big part of it is litigation. Things like people using their insurance to get new roofs, etc, which has been a big problem for years.
 
Things are getting bad everywhere. Houses here have doubled in price over the last few years and rents have as well. You can always take on a boarder / college student and tailor it however you want. For instance, they don't get free run of the house, just their bedroom and use of a bathroom, no meals, or no cooking, or cooking, no visitors, use of the rekroom or not, it's up to you how much of your house you want them to use. I've had friends over the years do this and many students are only at your house to sleep and study,, otherwise they're out and about with friends , not hanging around.
 
Thanks Pete, yeah I’ve thought about this. Ultimately I’d like to be in my own for now, but it may be necessary to have a boarder/roommate.

And I forgot to mention on John’s answer, yes I hope to get in a relationship someday and that would definitely help the financial aspect, I’m not sure I ever will as my hobbies bd collections would probably be a source of contention, rightfully so. Lol
 
This is not about politics. It's also about climate change. Have you seen what property insurance in Florida is like by paying premiums? An insurance expert was saying tonight on the radio that by the end of the year the property insurance bill for a residence in Florida could go as high as $12K a year and that is if you can find a carrier. My sister and brother in law are facing this now. That needs to be factored into your housing expenses.
 
I'd hang in there and wait it out a while longer.

Nothing wrong with having a pile of cash in the bank, you'll sleep better with CD and Money Markets paying 5%+ interest these days.

The RE market is royally messed up thanks to the Fed keeping rate close to 0% for over a decade.

People with 3% mortgages don't want to sell if they don't absolutely have to shrinking available inventory by about 20% plus all the other inflationary pressures on home prices. Add to that you're living in a state with a hot RE market

I don't think we're going to see a 2007 style RE crash. On the other hand recessions/layoffs are always a possibility so nothing wrong with considering worse case scenarios on that end.

Here are some articles by Wolf Richter on the situation:
https://wolfstreet.com/category/all/housing/
 
Are you looking for coastal property or more inland. Are you looking in the southern part of the state or more central or northern. All these are factors in the pricing and insurance. I have friends that bought a new constructed home in the Ocala area and the prices were not that bad. Had other friends that bought in the Jacksonville area and got a decent home at a decent price. So maybe you need to widen the area that you are looking for if you are willing to relocate to a different region.

Jon
 
Florida homeownership

costs have increased dramatically over the past few years. There's what is called "Pre" and "Post" Covid Florida. I'd suggest going on You Tube and searching for videos specific to your area of interest to get additional information regarding home prices and market trends.

The Insurance situation is out of control in a very serious way. Personally, I've had my insurance skyrocket since 2017. In 2017 it was $3500 annually. Now it is close to $20,000 and continues to increase. How this happens? We were non-renewed 3X. So you have this crazy search for another carrier and they name their price. Take it leave it--No negotiation. We are not in a coastal or high risk area. But recently our zip code has been designated a "High Hazard Zone" due to climate change predictions. So the Insurance companies now have justification to charge these outrageous rates. My community has not experienced hurricane force winds since Hurricane Donna in 1960. Of course you never know what each hurricane season could bring.

Anyway, the best way to have lower rates is to purchase a home with a new rood and that is less 20 years old.

Good luck. We love it too, but the charm is gone.

-LP
 
I live on the inland part of the state, so our insurance costs are much lower than the coast, but yes they definitely have gone up and will do so again every year.

pre-Covid and post-Covid definitely describes the haves and have nots of the real estate market.

If I had bought in 2019 I could’ve had a 3 bedroom 2 bath house only 10 years old, with a two car garage on a good sized lot in a good neighborhood for about $140-150,000.

I kick myself all the time for not buying then, but the reality is I still didn’t have a high enough down payment.

Now a home like that is closer to or over $300k, along with the higher taxes and insurances.

I had a friend that built a similar size house with tons of upgrade (standing seam metal roof, impact windows, 9 foot ceilings, high end cabinets and tops, etc, etc) including land for $200k in 2019.

Last year they bought a larger home about twice the size for $450k and are renting the other one out for $2000 a month.

Another friend I had bought an older smaller home about a decade ago for about $100k, last year bought a newer larger home for $275k and they too are renting the other one out.

The renting out instead of selling is even further constraining the supply for those looking to buy their first home. Not to mention all the corporates who bought homes the last few years in the lower price ranges.

I’ve decided I’ll probably just have to live in a rented apartment the rest of my life, and never have a yard, garage or be able to do any hobbies or fix anything up.

I shouldn’t complain, I have a good job (for now), no debt and substantial savings, but it’s just ridiculous that we’ve fallen so far that all that isn’t enough. I feel for people my age and younger who haven’t been able to save anything.

I’ve looked at real estate in other states but pricing seems to be pretty on par with here. Plus some things look like a great deal but when you research the location, crime rate is horrible.

You’d think we would need some kind of correction or nobody is going to afford the homes the older generations have to leave behind, but I suspect most will be passed down or otherwise go to long term care costs.
 
It’s all relative. Getting your foot into the real estate market has always been difficult. You have to make sacrifices in the beginning. Your first home purchase usually isn’t what you’d really want. When we bought our first condo in ‘87 interest rates were 10% and higher. We paid $55,950.00 for a 630 sq ft 1 bed 1 bath condo and our FHA mortgage was 10.5%. We put $500.00 down and needed and additional $3000 for closing and didn’t have a clue how we’d come up with it, but we did by selling everything that we could that we didn’t need through Garage Sales and posting lists at work.

If there’s a will, there’s a way! Put on your thinking cap and think outside of the box. You think prices are high in Florida, try buying your first home in California! A 1 bed 1 bath condo will set you back about $400,000.

People have become spoiled during the last 15 years with extremely low interest rates, plus “flippers” have driven the cost of homes thru the roof. Greed has an adverse effect on the entry level buyer. If you think that you’ll be stuck in a rented apartment for the rest of your life then that’s what will be. Visualize yourself being a homeowner and you’ll make it happen. Be positive, poor me and a dollar won’t get you a cup of coffee.

We kept our eyes on the light at the end of the tunnel and have had a paid for home for 14 years now which has allowed us to have a comfortable retirement. We both worked in service related jobs and weren’t high wage earners, but we made it happen, so can you!

Eddie[this post was last edited: 4/14/2024-19:28]
 
have to live in a rented apartment the rest of my life

Hang in there keep your powder dry and be ready to pounce when the time comes.

It sucks that the difference between housing have and have nots all depends of when you bought in the roller coaster real estate market of the last 20 years.

I have a friend who purchased a house in Belleville N.J. in early 2013 for $217,000. The previously owners had paid $464,000 in 2006 and lost it in a foreclosure. The house was nothing special BTW, small and needing some updating but on a nice lot and neighborhood.

That house is probably in the $450,000+ range today.
 
Buying your first house

Hi Cole, I agree with Eddie’s post above if this is something you really want to do it will happen and it sounds like you’re in a great position to buy a house now.

Since you have half the value of the house in savings, you have more than enough to get the best possible loan today and to move soon buying a house.

I’m sorry I brought politics up, although your reply and other posts really shows that the problem is more indecision on your behalf, and the possibility of you having a partner is going to be held off more by indecision because of your views than on your collecting appliances or whatever.

I’m With my 6th partner, and none of the people I ever was seriously involved with ever had an issue with me collecting stuff, anybody that is so shallow that they wouldn’t like you because you collect old stuff is not worth considering as a potential partner or even a friend.

Since with the strong economy, you can get a great job almost anywhere in the country. Now you really would do a lot better if you want more substantial home that’s much less expensive too maintain and run to move to the Midwest, the growth is also going to be greatest in the Midwest from Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, etc., as more and more people are going to move there with climate change.

Good luck with your search. Hope you have your home soon. There’s no reason you shouldn’t be moved into a house this year if you put your mind to it.

John
 
Remember, "going for long term care costs" entails a sale (either when the owner moves in to LTC or passes away).

Given your interest in Florida, make triple sure that you're looking at the most updated FEMA flooding maps (they have been updated in the last 18 months) even if you're looking inland. With as low-lying as Florida is, many decisions are made on the basis of those maps. They're probably available through the city/county.

Insurance is going to be a challenge for you...no doubt. As insurance is a state-regulated industry, most of the power to change things is at the state level...insurance commissioners and so-forth.

Good luck--that first property purchase is always a leap into the unknown.
 
Have you noticed less and less advertisements in newspapers and on line presence for houses for sale by realtors? About a month ago there was a new national decision that the percentage rate made by realtors on the sale of a house has been changed. This has been pretty much a secret since it has passed. No longer are realtors allowed the standard 6% commission rate. That number has dropped I believe to around 2%. The way a house is shown or sold is going to be different. Supposedly this should drop the selling price on a house since the outlay to the realtor is going to be less. You will have to pay a price to be shown a house or houses. You will have to scout around on line possibly to see houses that are available in your area. There was also discussion about a flat fee of say $2500 to $3500 on any house that is sold, no matter what the selling price is. So if selling a $4 million dollar house the realtor would make $3500. Going to be interesting to see how this works out.

Jon
 
Jon,
The new laws regarding real estate commissions and fees implies that the realtor and customers will now negotiate the commission and fee schedule and they will be agreed upon contractually, rather than the standard 6% as in the past.

Trust me, there will not be ANY realtors that will be agreeing to sell a $4 million house for a $3500 commission.

And you are correct, it will be interesting. It’s possible that this new way of doing things just may work out better for some sellers and buyers. It all remains to be seen. Realtors are going to have to work harder to make big bucks off of the sales of homes and they will have to be creative.

Eddie
 
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