Agreed, Gordon
I think you, Patrick, and Laundress have valid points. I have seen (and sometimes inadvertently caused) situations where someone ramped the price because they thought they had a goldmine, just because they had a bunch of old stuff, some of it in rather crunchy condition. But in the world of new-in-box, my experience is limited to a Sunbeam electric knife, and surprisingly, it didn't command a king's ransom.
Part of the issue is that collecting can be so deeply emotional--it's emotional to find something amazing that you know you won't see everyday, and it's emotional to want to make it yours, and it's emotional if the deal falls through, and you get disappointed. We've all been there--whether it's a simple, impersonal outbidding on eBay, or the deeply frustrating Craigslist person who offers something up to someone else at a different price after indicating you could purchase it.
In the logical realm, you're absolutely right that the market should sort things out. It works both ways; if you have something less rare up for bid and/or in less than pristine condition, the price drops, because it won't move. The possibility exists that the seller won't relent, and then the item goes into the trash; that's heartbreaking, but it's the nature of the universe. We've seen it with the few Maytag sets that go for a kajillion dollars, and Lord knows why. That's fine, too, because the sellers are entitled to their decision to sell high, and so long as they have room to hang onto that set, they can afford the luxury of time. Rather like the $100,000 glass of lemonade at a kid's lemonade stand, where his reasoning seemed oddly sound: "I only have to sell one."
I've also seen "meh" items get driven up to high prices because there were a few people who really wanted them. That's the agony and the ecstasy of the free market. It can be a supreme pisser, but sometimes I have to remind myself to not be so myopic, and focus on the fact that there is a span, not an instant, to this hobby, and that something else super-cool might come along (and usually does).
It's all in the name of the thrill of collecting. There are times when you discover something awesome, and it's yours for a song. There are those other times that we scratch our collective heads over how something so mundane could command such a selling price. It comes and goes in waves in all different arenas; I've noticed, for instance, that the thrift stores overprice items to see if they can get some extra coin; if it doesn't move, they drop the price until it does, because 20% of something is still superior to 100% of nothing. But you take a risk at passing something up at $100 when you know it's only "worth" $50. If someone else disagrees, it might not be there the next time you happen by. It's all the thrill of collecting, Vegas-style.
Given as how the thrift stores and Craigslist used to overflow with machines we ignored that now we'd be thrilled to drag home and play with, I think there's an intensified scarcity that's making stuff harder to find, and more difficult to find cheaply. Some people follow the vibe and shoot for the stars when they create an asking price. But isn't it great when someone does their homework and offers things up here, instead of just trading them in to Sears so that they can become a Toyota? I'd hate to suppress our approachability and amiability as a group.
Zooming back to the new-in-box question, though, those'll always command a high price. They just do, because--well--imagine being owner #1 on something from 1958! Wow! Talk about emotional connection. It's yours, and has never been anyone else's, even if you do have to replace the hoses just to use it. Those items are in a class by themselves the way a 98-point show car is not the same as a second-owner Oldsmobile, no matter how well-cared for it is. And no, I don't think there's a market for those NIB items alone, but there will always be a mechanism for determining their value, as people decide how much money covers that unique connectedness you derive from something that old, but new.
