H5N1 "swine" flu

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Two reported cases in Kansas

Not nervous, but concerned. The two that were infected were a man who had recently been in Mexico City, and his wife that he infected once he returned. He was reported to have only been doing tourist things and not in contact with swine or birds.
 
Goatfarmer,

This flu is not that flu. This outbreak is entirely unrelated to the "flu-shot" flue which kills those 36K*+ every year.

There is no inoculation against it, no known previous outbreak which has left the survivors immune, and a demonstrated high degree of infectiousness, including aerosol.

There are two factors involved here which explain why Europeans are very concerned.

First, the incidence of infection is stochastic. You can only model using probability relationships...and those for other unchecked HxNx virus infections involving similar trans-species variations tend to go in a 1, 2, 4, 16, 256, 65,536, 4,294,967,296...relationship. So far, this one seems to, also, but we don't know that for sure yet.

You know what that means, we know that the only reason the black death stopped in Europe was because those who lived were immune, not because it "ran its course".

Second, it doesn't take all that many people to become ill for essential services - especially in a country like the US without many social nets - to break down.

Panic, no.
But serious attention to preventing this from exploding exponentially, yes.
 
tentative model

The European Union is using this formula until they know more. Not reassuring:
dy/dx = 0.2y - 0.02x
"y" is the number of infected individuals in thousands,
"x" the time in days.
 
from the NYT 5:19 PM ET

"The new swine flu cases are caused by an influenza strain called H1N1, which appears to be easily passed from person to person. Mexican health authorities have confirmed 149 deaths from that flu and are investigating the illnesses of 1,600 people, and the United States, Canada, Spain and other countries have confirmed or are investigating cases.

But doctors have little information yet on the mortality rate, as there is no reliable data on the total number of people infected. Reports from the United States suggest that some cases may be mild and therefore may go undetected — allowing the disease to spread further. Flu experts are trying to determine if this year’s flu shots, which contain H1N1 strain, offer any protection. "

Apparently, the flu shots many of us received last fall did have some form of the H1N1 flu virus, but it may or may not help...

 
I'm not nervous, either

I figure the flu I had three weeks ago was this swine-bird-human flu they're talking about. A lot of mexican nationals where I work now, you see.

I got over it ok, except my ear is still plugged up. It's slowly clearing.
 
Why the swine flu is dangerous

If it's the same type of flu that caused the 1918 pandemic... then it could be very bad. The sick characteristic is that unlike other forms of flu, this one is most lethal for healthy young adults between the ages of 20 and 40.

The reason is that this type of flu causes healthy immune systems to over-react, called a cytokine storm. T cells get mobilized and then they release more chemical messengers that mobilize even more T-cells, in a cascading effect. Unfortunately the T cells go out of control and damage tissues. If it happens in the lungs, they can fill with fluid from the inflammation and result in death. Paradoxically, the very young and the very old tend not to suffer from this reaction, because their immune systems are not so robust.

There is some scientific difference of opinion as to whether the 1918 flu pandemic featured cytokine storms, or if the coming pandemic will have it, but from what I can tell it seems like the most likely explanation of what happened then.

Fortunately with modern medical care people can survive the cytokine storm. The lack of such care probably accounts for the death toll in Mexico and elsewhere, and the low lethality in the US and European cases.

The virus could also mutate into a less lethal form. Who knows?

Wash your hands religiously.
 
I'm on the Emergency Planning Committee for Southborough, and this is the latest we received as a group email from the department (it won't all format correctly as I had to cut/paste):

The Commonwealth of Massachusetts
Executive Office of Health and Human Services
Department of Public Health
250 Washington Street, Boston, MA 02108-4619

DEVAL L. PATRICK
GOVERNOR
TIMOTHY P. MURRAY
LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR
JUDYANN BIGBY, MD
SECRETARY
JOHN AUERBACH
COMMISSIONER

Swine Influenza A (H1N1) Virus
Information for School and Childcare Settings
April 27, 2009

No cases of swine influenza (H1N1), known as swine flu, have been detected in Massachusetts as of April 27, 2009. With many students and childcare attendees returning from spring vacation, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) is providing the following guidance for these settings. However, this is a rapidly evolving situation. As more information becomes available and the situation unfolds, guidance is likely to change in the upcoming days and weeks. It is important for people to stay informed by monitoring websites such as those provided below.

Attached is the DPH fact sheet on swine flu, which you should feel free to provide to parents, students and staff.

Guidance for School and Childcare Settings
At this time, DPH recommends that schools and childcare settings increase education on respiratory hygiene and monitor attendees for acute febrile respiratory illness.

Staff and children (as developmentally appropriate) should all be taught and asked to follow these steps that prevent the transmission of infections such as influenza:
Cover your coughs and sneezes into a tissue or the inside of your elbow, not into your bare hands.
Avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth.
Wash hands frequently, especially after coughing or sneezing.
Stay home if you’re sick, especially with a fever.

School or childcare participants with acute febrile respiratory illness, regardless of travel history, should be sent home according to facilities-established procedures with instructions to stay at home for least 7 days after the onset of illness or until 24 hours after their symptoms resolve, whichever is longer. Instructions should be given to seek medical care if symptoms worsen. At this time, exclusion is not recommended for school or childcare participants who have recently traveled to an area where swine flu cases have been confirmed, and who do not have symptoms.

Disease Reporting and Consultation

School nurses and student health centers should report higher than normal absenteeism to your local health department or to the DPH Epidemiology Program at 617-983-6800.
Definitions of Respiratory Illness:
1. Acute respiratory illness, defined as recent onset of at least two of the following:
rhinorrhea (runny nose) or nasal congestion
sore throat
cough
fever or feverishness
Influenza-like illness: fever >37.8°C (100°F) plus cough or sore throat

For More Information:

U.S. CDC Swine Influenza Website:

Infection control and treatment guidance: http://www.cdc.gov/flu/swine/recommendations.htm

Massachusetts-Specific Information as well as links to CDC:

School and/or Day Care Specific Resources

All you have to do is wash your hands Podcast: This Podcast teaches children how and when to wash their hands properly.

Downloadable Flu Prevention Materials for Schools/Day Cares:
Preventing the Spread of Influenza (the Flu) in Child Care Settings: Guidance for Administrators, Care Providers, and Other Staff: Flu recommendations for schools and child care providers http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/infectioncontrol/childcaresettings.htm
Protecting Against the Flu: Advice for Caregivers of Children Less Than 6 Months Old: Research has shown that children less than 5 years of age are at high risk of serious flu-related complications. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/infantcare.htm
Stopping Germs at Home, Work and School: Fact Sheet http://www.cdc.gov/germstopper/home_work_school.htm
Ounce of Prevention: Tips and streaming video for parents and children about the steps and benefits of effective hand washing http://www.cdc.gov/ounceofprevention/
Clean Hands Saves Lives: Keeping hands clean is one of the most important steps we can take to avoid getting sick and spreading germs to others. http://www.cdc.gov/cleanhands/
Hand washing to reduce Disease: Recommendations to Reduce Disease Transmission from Animals in Public Settings http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/rr5605a4.htm
BAM! Body and Mind. Teacher's Corner: In this activity, students will conduct an experiment on washing their hands. They will learn that "clean" hands may not be so clean after all and the critical importance of washing their hands as a way to prevent the spread of disease. http://www.bam.gov/teachers/epidemiology_hand_wash.html
CDC TV - Put Your Hands Together: (Video) Scientists estimate that people are not washing their hands often or well enough and may transmit up to 80% of all infections by their hands. http://www.cdc.gov/CDCTV/HandsTogether/
Cover your Cough Posters: Stop the Spread of Germs that Make You and Others Sick! Printable formats of "Cover Your Cough". Posters only available as PDF files. http://www.cdc.gov/flu/protect/covercough.htm
CDC - Be a Germ Stopper: Posters and Materials: For Community and Public Settings Like Schools and Child Care Facilities). Cover Your Cough also available for health care settings. http://www.cdc.gov/germstopper/materials.htm
"It's a SNAP" Toolkit Program materials to help prevent school absenteeism activities for school administrators, teachers, students and others can do to help stop the spread of germs in schools.
See the hand cleaning section of the "It's a SNAP" site at www.itsasnap.org/snap/about.asp.
Scrub Club http://www.scrubclub.org/Kids can learn about health and hygiene and become members of the Scrub Club(tm) at www.scrubclub.org. The site features a fun and educational animated Webisode with seven "soaper-heros" who battle nasty villains who represent germs and bacteria. Kids learn the six key steps to proper hand-washing through a webisode, hand-washing song, interactive games, and activities for kids, and educational materials for teachers are also available to download.
 
Mexican nationals...

... they probably are born in Mexico but have green cards or are naturalized citizens here. Still, it's possible they traveled back to Mexico for spring break or had visitors from Mexico recently. I suspect there are a lot more cases of this "swine" flu that have come and gone with relatively mild symptoms and so did not trigger lab tests to determine the strain of flu. Now, of course, anyone who comes down with the flu probably could convince their HMO to run the tests so as to determine the scope of the outbreak.

I get flu shots every year but this one apparently wasn't "on the list". I know others in the same situation - they got this late season flu. It's so close to the swine flu outbreak/announcement that I suspect they are one and the same.
 
If it's the same type of flu that caused the 1918 pandem

No, things won't be that bad, at least in developed western countries. Of course should this particular flu morph into something with a 80% or more mortality rate, then things might be different.

Medical care has vastly improved since the early 1900's as have the science. Fever, dehydration, poor health and sanitation in general amoung other things helped contribute to the high mortality rate in 1918.

During the 1918 flu outbreak we did not have IV drips, Tamiflu, or even fever reducing drugs besides aspirin. The best care one got then was the standard confined to bed, rest, drink fluids, and hopefully a nurse or family member to apply cold compresses. However if one was vomiting, with fever, and frequent loose bowel movements, it was likely one was being dehydrated. Sadly flu victums often do not wish to drink nor eat, this leads to a downward sprial.

What could happen in the United States is that large numbers of a population in a given area come down with this flu, and begin to overwhelm local heatlh services. Given the large numbers of uninsured persons in the USA, hospital emergency rooms would see a huge surge of patients, just when many cannot cope with what they already have.
 
One Interesting Thing

God forbid this thing does go into a major stage, but the United States,along with many other western nations suffer from a shortage of nurses, as well as primary (general practice), doctors. It is not all clear if hospitals began to fill up with flu patients, where more nurses and or doctors would come from, and also would many wish to work on such wards.

To those who think nurses are self sacrificing angels in white, that breed pretty much has died out with starched whites and caps. Today many nurses, especially those with familes and or young children think carefully about taking on situations that would endanger their own health. A nurse on duty cannot legally leave her patients unless relieved,but that does not mean all nurses would show up for shifts.

During the 1918 flu, many nurses, doctors, and others that cared for those suffering, eventually caught and died of the flu, including mothers that spent all their effort and strength taking care of their children and families.

L.
 
A few thoughts

Thanks to Bush #43, the US now has fewer labs equipped for rapid response to this than at any time in the 20th century.

Before we take too many pot-shots at Mexicans in the US, it is well to remember that at any given time millions of American citizens are working or studying in foreign countries. Not to mention what is estimated at 300,000 gay or lesbian Americans who are forced to live abroad because they are married to or are in a long-term relationship with a non-American. Thanks to DOMA, these spouses of these Americans aren't entitled to green cards.

People who are in the US illegally are a major problem. But we are making a horrible mistake when we make it even more difficult for exactly that group of people who are most likely to contract the disease and spread it - those Mexicans who are in the US without visas to get medical help. Think about that for a moment. It was exactly the same for us gays (some folks here are gay, I am) back in the bad old days when the conservative Christian politicians were screaming for us to be given tattooed on numbers and "isolated" from the general population because Aids could be spread by touching. Surely some folks here are old enough to not have forgotten - and virus based epidemics thrive under exactly these conditions.

I don't know the solution, but that is the real danger - these communities have strong ties to Mexico and very strong (if illegal) reasons not to go to the authorities.

People are people, and dismissing those in the US who have no access to medical care because of failed political goals or not setting up adequate public health facilities because of the libertarian "I got mine, who cares about you" health care policies is precisely how to make this serious, but tiny problem into an epidemic.

End of rant, I've been called in for a meeting for all Professors and Lecturers - we are being required to distribute materials on prevention and isolation of the flu and discuss them with every single class we teach. We hope, through education, to prevent the worst.
 

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