Sean Williams: I would be jaw-on-the-floor shocked if Sears Holdings made it to 2020 based on its ongoing business woes and dismal balance sheet.
Despite a veritable laundry list of store closures -- the company announced more than six dozen in April alone – and a renewed focus on modernizing its most profitable stores, Sears and Kmart simply can't gain any traction.
During the second quarter, the company announced that Kmart's same-store sales declined 3.3%, while Sears' domestic store revenue dropped 7% from the prior-year period. Perhaps more telling is that this continues an 11-year trend of declining same-store sales for the Sears-Kmart combination. Since 2010 alone, the company has lost more than $8 billion.
With clear business-model issues also come financing concerns. Sears Holdings wound up tapping a $300 million secured junior lien against its inventory, receivables, and other working capital from ESL Investments, a hedge fund founded and run by Eddie Lampert, who is also CEO of Sears. ESL has also previously backed a $250 million debt tranche for Sears Holdings.
Since the beginning of the year, Sears Holdings' long-term debt obligations have ballooned from $2.2 billion to $3.4 billion, while its cash on hand has jumped by just $38 million to $276 million. In other words, Sears' weak balance sheet could thwart its only chance to renew the image of its most profitable stores.
Perhaps the only path to recovery for Sears Holdings is to consider selling its core brands, such as Craftsman, Kenmore, and Die Hard. Doing so would likely bring a major relief to Sears' balance sheet, which could allow the company the opportunity to completely modernize its stores. Unfortunately, it could also remove a big incentive for the few loyal Sears customers that remain to return to those stores, and really crush any opportunity for near-term growth.
Sears Holdings and Eddie Lampert have a number of tough decisions ahead of them, but my suspicion is the company may not live to see the turn of the decade.