Rich, that's how I worked it out. The socket base doesn't have color coded terminal screws (brass and steel) like those on modern ones, so while at ACE I examined some sockets and concluded that the neutral was the threaded one.
I don't know if the wiring behind the existing fixture will be marked, but I figure since that fixture is working fine (it's a fairly recent install; the original one is long gone), I'll connect hot and neutral leads to the house wiring accordingly. The knob & tube wiring that still exists in this house is sheathed in entirely black or white, but after 85 years, the sheathing on the connections behind the outdoor fixtures can appear to be black on both.
I don't know if the wiring behind the existing fixture will be marked, but I figure since that fixture is working fine (it's a fairly recent install; the original one is long gone), I'll connect hot and neutral leads to the house wiring accordingly. The knob & tube wiring that still exists in this house is sheathed in entirely black or white, but after 85 years, the sheathing on the connections behind the outdoor fixtures can appear to be black on both.