Real estate mess

[fan-of-fans]

Foreclosures

The foreclosures could take a significant amount of time.

I remember the house next to my parents did so. It sold in 2000 for $65k. The owner filled the property with junk vehicles, RVs and other assorted junk. They borrowed significant amounts of equity loans. It was a public nuisance and complaints were filed both with code enforcement and sheriffs dept for many years.

The foreclosure process began in early 2007. The eviction process did not even begin until November of 2014! I remember it well as the owner scrambled to remove everything from the property.

If I recall it went on the market in very early 2015, listed and sold for $70k.. The next owner demolished the home (it was a 1950s cottage in poor condition) and built a new 3000 square foot home for $200k in 2016 era values. It sold in 2017 for $315k, and again in 2020 for $365k.

And amazingly that would’ve been just before this run up in prices really took off!!

To end the story… Back to the owner that got foreclosed on - in 2007 they built a home -while foreclosure proceedings were beginning on this one, and I suspect they were somehow able to borrow off of it in order to build the other.

 

[fan-of-fans]

I see two fears here about buying or not buying or not buying.

I agree on ways it seems like the way things are going is a rent forever model. There are certainly communities being built now where the homes/units are being built to rent. There have also been many homes sold in my area that are being purchased and then rented out. What really ticks me off about this is the buyers are able to “pay cash” in order to beat out buyers who want to actually live in the home and would need a mortgage. But these “cash buyers” aren’t even paying cash! They are getting a loan fronted so that it looks like they’re paying cash, but they still have to pay the lender.

It is such a scam and sadly it’s nearly destroyed the affordable end of the market for anyone just wanting to buy a starter home for themselves.

So we either don’t buy now, and just become priced out forever.
Or, you do buy, now having missed out on cheaper prices AND low interest rates and have a much higher risk of foreclosure as/if we go into a recession.

There are few deals on the market and whereas even in 2019/early 2020 you could get a nice 3 bedroom 2 bath home with a 3 car garage, it now takes over $250k to get anything like that. I would feel like a sucker at this point to buy what $150-180k gets you now, knowing what it used to buy just a few years ago.

What’s interesting though is I’m seeing more new construction here right now than I’ve seen in years. That’s actually a little concerning to me, and reminds me of 06/07. Just within a few miles of here I can think of 7 or 8 homes that are in process of, just finished construction or lane had been cleared to begin. That’s quite a lot. And around town there are probably 30 homes built within the last year or two just in one area I can think of.

There is one builder offering 3/2/2 homes on your land starting in the high $180s/low $200s. This sounds like a pretty good price to me given how high costs are right now. I’ve also considered buying land and putting a mobile home and steel building for a shop on it. You can buy a nice mobile for $110k and a good sized steel building for $10k, both including delivery and installation.

I’m fortunate that I have a substantial savings over the last decade of working and saving, but I don’t want to sabotage my chances by making a bad decision at a bad time.

 

[good-shepherd]

2 bath home with a 3 car garage, it now takes over $250k

You couldn't buy a shack in my area for $250K.

If you plan on being in the house for a long time I wouldn't worry too much about future price swings.

 

[good-shepherd]

If we don’t buy now, and just become priced out forever.

Two RE stories with different endings:

An ex-GF of mine had the same FOMO in early 2006, I tried to talk her out of it as it was very obvious housing was in a massive bubble but she didn't want to hear it. (The ironic thing was when RE was dirt cheap she was fine being a renter, traveling and having a good time, the market goes nuts then she wants to buy)?

Anyway, the RE market peaked before the ink was dry on the mortgage she really couldn't afford and had to sell two years later at $50,000 loss. Took more than ten years for the condo she bought to get back up to what she pad for it.
Of course its probably worth much more now but it thats after what would have been 15 years of mortgage interest, property taxes, etc.

She's been a renter ever since because she f-up and wouldn't listen to good advice.

Another girl I know got married and they bought nice little fixer upper in early 2013 coming out foreclosure for $217,000 (previous owners paid $364,000 in 2006 at the peak of of the market). They got divorced two years later, she got the house and its probably now worth $400,000+

Bottom line: If you get lucky and time things well or can ride out booms and busts you'll probably be okay in the long run buying residential RE.